😎 Shifting Snowdrifts: Canadian Snowbirds Are Cooling On The U.S. Real Estate Market

In today’s newsletter we discuss how Canadian snowbirds are cooling on the U.S. real estate market, Zelle is shutting down their app that no one even uses, Jason & Kylie Kelce welcome their 4th daughter Finnley Anne Kelce, Subway is introducing $5 footlong nacho cheese-flavored Doritos bowls, and the NFL is replacing the chain gang with Sony’s Hawk-Eye camera-based system to determine first downs.

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WHAT WE’RE READING

😎 Shifting Snowdrifts: Are Canadian Snowbirds Cooling On The U.S. Real Estate Market?

For decades, the annual migration of Canadian "snowbirds" to warmer U.S. states like Florida, Arizona, and California has been a predictable rhythm, bringing not just seasonal residents but significant investment into local economies through real estate purchases. Various economic, political, and lifestyle factors are prompting some Canadians to rethink where they Winter, and some are even pulling the trigger and selling their sun-belt properties. This could be a bad sign for an economy that is already teetering on the edge of recession thanks to the tariff policies recently implemented by the current administration. Any significant shift in Canadian ownership patterns could have noticeable economic consequences in specific states across the U.S.

Canadians represent the largest group of foreign buyers of U.S. residential real estate. According to the National Association of Realtors' 2023 Profile of International Transactions in U.S. Residential Real Estate, Canadians accounted for 10% of all foreign buyers between April 2022 and March 2023. During that period, they purchased an estimated 7,100 properties, with a total dollar volume of $6.6 billion. While pinpointing the exact total number of U.S. homes currently owned by Canadians or their cumulative value across the entire country is challenging due to the nature of real estate data, these annual purchase figures consistently highlight their substantial footprint in the market, especially in vacation and retirement destinations. Florida remains their top choice, followed by Arizona and California.

Several factors might be contributing to Canadians contemplating selling their U.S. homes, including:

• Currency Exchange: The strong U.S. dollar relative to the Canadian dollar makes owning, maintaining, and living in the U.S. more expensive for Canadians.

• Rising Ownership Costs: Increased financial burdens come from rising property taxes, higher insurance costs (especially in disaster-prone areas like Florida), and general inflation.

• Lifestyle Changes: Personal shifts in lifestyle preferences influence the decision.

• Health Considerations: Evolving health needs can make managing or traveling to a second home difficult.

• Travel Complexities: Changes or difficulties related to cross-border travel can be a factor.

• Aging and Management: The challenges of managing a second property from afar increase with age.

• Investment Realization: Choosing to sell after significant property value appreciation to cash out on the investment.

What would be the economic effect if a large number of Canadians decided to sell their U.S. properties? The impact would likely be most concentrated in the specific regions and communities they favor including Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California. A surge in listings from Canadian sellers could increase housing inventory in these localized markets. This increase in supply, particularly if it outpaces demand, could put downward pressure on property values, especially in condo complexes or neighborhoods heavily populated by snowbirds.

Beyond the direct real estate market, a reduction in the Canadian snowbird population would ripple through local economies. These seasonal residents contribute significantly through spending at restaurants, retail stores, golf courses, entertainment venues, and local service providers. A decline in their numbers would mean less revenue for these businesses, potentially impacting employment during the peak winter season. Furthermore, local governments could see a potential dip in property tax revenues if homes remain vacant for extended periods or sell at lower values, although this would depend heavily on market dynamics and how quickly properties are absorbed by new buyers.

Canadian investment in U.S. residential real estate is substantial, forming a key part of the economic landscape in many Sun Belt communities. While individual decisions to sell are driven by personal financial and lifestyle factors, a broader trend of Canadians divesting from their U.S. properties would create noticeable economic headwinds. It would affect local housing market dynamics, consumer spending patterns, and potentially tax revenues, underscoring the significant, albeit often seasonal, economic role Canadian snowbirds play in the United States.

💰 Business

Amid growing concerns over potential future tariffs and broader economic instability possibly linked to political shifts, many of the country’s wealthiest families are increasingly directing their private wealth managers, known as family offices, to move their assets outside the United States. An increasing number of U.S.-based family offices intend to shift investments abroad over the next five years as a diversification strategy against perceived domestic risks, marking a notable increase from previous sentiment.

“The world’s 8,000 single family offices have over $3 trillion in assets under management, expected to grow to $5 trillion by 2030”, according to a report by Deloitte Private.

I know I feel much better knowing the wealthy are busy protecting their assets while the rest just hope for the best.

🤱 Entertainment

Jason Kelce, the now-retired center for the Philadelphia Eagles, and his famous podcasting wife Kylie, just expanded their family with the birth of their 4th daughter, Finnley Anne Kelce. Their new daughter joins the family’s roster of other daughters including Wyatt, Elliotte, and Bennett. While most families complain about the cost of diapers, the Kelces seem well-positioned financially to handle little Finnley’s deposits. Jason Kelce just signed a 3 year, $24 million dollar contract with ESPN to be an on air analyst. This is on top of his $100 million dollar podcasting deal he and his brother Travis signed with Amazon's Wondery. Kylie Kelce recently launched her own podcast called “Not Gonna Lie” a few months ago, and it has already booked big name guests and high profile advertisers.

So affording diapers are the least of the Kelce’s worries these days.

🏦 Tech

Zelle, which offers an easy way to send money to friends and family directly from your bank account to theirs, is closing down their mobile app. That’s the bad news. The good news is their service isn’t going anywhere, and you can still use it to send and receive money. In 2024 people sent over $1 trillion dollars through the Zelle network.

Turns out the vast majority of their users never even knew they had a mobile app, so obviously it won’t be missed.

🧀 Food

Subway is launching a new footlong, but this time in the form of nachos. Subway has partnered with Doritos to offer a $5 footlong bowl of nacho cheese-flavored Doritos topped with cheddar cheese, jalapenos, tomatoes, onions, chipotle sauce, and chicken or steak. You had me at nacho cheese!

Subway, a privately held company that doesn't frequently release sales figures, saw its revenue increase by 10.3% to $971.9 million in 2023, with average sales per location reaching $490,000, a historic high.

No word yet on if Subway will also be offering nacho flavored Tums as a side choice.

🏈 Sports

With the start of the 2025 season, the NFL will begin using Sony's Hawk-Eye camera-based system to determine first downs, instead of the regular chain gang on the sidelines. This new  system utilizes (6) 8K cameras in each of the 30 NFL stadiums, and aims to improve accuracy and reduce the time taken for measurements by approximately 40 seconds per instance. WoW that’s quick!

Before you start worrying about the financial well being of the traditional chain crew, they’ll continue to remain on the sidelines earning between $75-$150 per game just in case they’re needed as a backup.

Why the upgrade to digital? Apparently eyeballing first downs with a rusty old chains wasn't cutting it anymore for the multi-billion dollar NFL.

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irl Media NEWSLETTER is written, edited, and published by Chris Thompson.