😭 Welcome To The Beginning Of The Great Recession Of 2025!

Letter From The Editor
If ever there was a time for me to reach out directly to you my reads its now. In today’s issue I’ve dropped some real gems on you, so I won’t ruin the punchline here before you’ve had a chance to read them.

I will say hold the line. I think that’s what we all need to do right now. Don’t panic, or sell out, or make any rash decisions. As we’ve seen with this administration time-and-time again they change their minds more often than a dog in heat humps your leg…so a lot!

We’ve been through market crashes, market corrections, and we’ve all made it through at least one Trump administration. If we can do that, we can do anything, but only if we hold the line.

To distract myself this weekend I did a little memecoin trading, which obviously resulted in me losing all of the money I was playing with, but at least I had fun and was distracted. Plus, I really believe in Hedge Coin (hedgecoin), and think it’s going to the moon! 🤦‍♂️

If you need a distraction feel free to reread some of my past issues. There’s some great puns in there that I feel like ya’ll might have missed, but rest assured I was feeling more than a little witty today when I wrote this issue, so without further ado in today’s newsletter we welcome you to The Great Recession Of 2025, but whatever you do don’t look at your 401Ks, instead let’s talk about how "A Minecraft Movie" made $301 million dollars worldwide on its opening weekend, Bridgestone had developed a new tire for the Moon, Bitcoin dropped on Sunday night to levels not seen since November 2024 but we’re not going to think about that - instead let’s talk about how the NFL has decided to punt on making a decision about the “tush push” for the 2025 NFL season (see what I did there?).

Scroll on!

WHAT WE’RE READING

😭 Welcome To The Beginning Of The Great Recession Of 2025!

Americans are facing a significant financial squeeze as the recently enacted tariffs are projected to decrease their purchasing power by an average of $3,800 per household this year alone. This stark figure comes from a recent analysis by the Yale Budget Lab, which meticulously examined the fiscal, economic, and distributional consequences of all U.S. tariffs currently in place. The report paints a concerning picture of rising consumer prices and diminished real disposable income across the nation.

The Yale Budget Lab's findings indicate that these tariffs, implemented on a range of imported goods, are acting as a regressive tax, disproportionately impacting lower and middle-income families. Households in the second-lowest income decile are expected to see a roughly 4% reduction in their disposable income, a far greater burden than the 1.6% loss projected for the wealthiest households. This translates to a significant strain on everyday expenses, from groceries and apparel to automobiles and electronics. For instance, the analysis suggests potential price hikes of 17% on apparel and 4% on fresh produce, directly hitting consumers where it hurts the most.

According to a recent CNBC survey of leading CEOs, there’s a growing pessimism about the nation's financial trajectory, with some CEOs going as far as to say “This is the Trump recession”. Many CEOs see tariff price increases and job losses coming in the next few months.

A majority of these top executives anticipate a recession before the end of 2025, with nearly one-third expecting their companies to initiate job cuts as a direct response to the escalating tariff costs and the resulting economic slowdown.

So much for stimulating the economy. If only there had been some economists in the current administration that could have explained how these reciprocal tariffs make no sense would wreck the economy.

CEOs are also grappling with the uncertainty surrounding the long-term impact of these tariffs. While some hope for a reshoring of manufacturing, most acknowledge that the transition will be painful, marked by squeezed consumer spending and reduced corporate profits. The timeline for any potential benefits, such as increased domestic production, remains unclear, with many CEOs estimating it would take 3+ years to significantly shift manufacturing back to the United States.

The combination of reduced household purchasing power and the looming threat of a recession, as predicted by business leaders, paints a challenging economic landscape for the remainder of 2025. It appears the strategy of using tariffs as an economic tool is coming at a considerable cost to American families and businesses alike.

One could even make the argument that the Trump administration’s novel approach to stimulating the economy is working by making everything more expensive!

📉 Business

I think I need to acknowledge the tariff elephant in the room, and the effect it is having on American’s psyche every time they look at their 401Ks.

It's certainly unsettling to see market fluctuations leading to a decline in retirement savings as a result of the recent tariffs that have been enacted. I’m not a financial advisor, but I think it's crucial during these times to remember the long-term nature of investing. Panic selling can and will result in losses over the long term, and will prevent participation in the eventual market recovery, which has historically always followed downturns.

Consider the stark lesson from the 2008 financial crisis. Many individuals, witnessing the housing market collapse and subsequent stock market plunge, made the emotionally driven decision to liquidate their retirement accounts. One guy I knew came into work one day ranting-and-raving about how the economy was crashing and he cashed out his entire 401K and life savings right there on the spot as the market was dropping.

Did he save his portfolio from dropping any further? Yes. Did he miss out on the stock market’s recovery since then? Absolutely!

On September 29, 2008, the DJIA had a record-breaking drop of 777.68 with a close at 10,365.45. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit a market low of 6,469.95 on March 6, 2009, having lost over 54% of its value since the October 9, 2007 high.

On April 1, 2025, before the Trump administration rolled out their poorly conceived tariffs plan, the DJIA closed at 41,989.96.

The percentage increase of the DJIA from 6,469.95 on September 29, 2008, to 41,989.96 on April 1, 2025, has been approximately 549.00%.

Since the bottom of the market in March 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has grown by approximately 549%. This means that for every dollar left invested, it has grown to roughly $6.49 dollars today.

Selling out back in 2008 meant my friend has lost out on substantial gains that his portfolio could have made if he had just held steady and participated in the market’s recovery. He’s past the age of retirement now, but sadly he feels he may never retire at this point because he’s kept his retirement funds in cash all these years. Now it’s like he’s lost out of 17 years of economic prosperity since the housing market crash of 2008.

So while the news headlines might be alarming (and they ARE), remember that patience in the market is not just a virtue - it's the key to growing your wealth over the long-term.

And for those who are selling now, well, congratulations on perfectly timing the bottom!

⛏ Entertainment

"A Minecraft Movie" has defied industry expectations, exploding into theaters with a staggering $157 million in its opening weekend in the United States and Canada, and an additional $144 million internationally, for a global debut of $301 million dollars. This makes it the biggest opening of 2025, and the highest-grossing opening weekend for a video game adaptation by even surpassing "The Super Mario Bros. Movie." Considering the film reportedly cost $150 million to produce and another $150 million for marketing, it needs to earn around $300 million to break even - which it cleared in its first weekend.

Obviously audiences found something more appealing in blocky graphics than the critics who tore the movie apart (probably without ever even watching it!)

🛞 Tech

Bridgestone has been collaborating with both NASA and companies like Astrobotic Technology to develop specialized tires for lunar rovers, drawing upon their extensive history in tire technology. Their latest foray into lunar mobility has resulted in a tire concept for small and medium-sized rovers that bears a striking resemblance to an onion chopper, featuring a skeletal metal structure with flexible support elements. This design will help lunar rovers to take on the challenging surface of the moon.

Making tires for the moon is just one revenue stream for the Tokyo, Japan-based company Bridgestone, which posted revenue of $28.9 billion dollars worldwide in 2024 and a $1.2 billion dollar profit for the year with a profit margin of 9.9%.

One can only hope these space-age onion chopper tires won't bring any tears to the lunar explorers.

🪙 Crypto

The implementation of new tariffs by the Trump administration has sent shockwaves through global financial markets, leading to a significant downturn in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, plummeting as low as $74,467.7 in the early hours of April 7, 2025, marking a substantial intraday drop of over 9.16%. This fall, which saw Bitcoin trading at levels not seen since November 2024, occurred amidst a broader sell-off in the crypto market, with other major cryptocurrencies like Ether and Solana also experiencing double-digit percentage losses. To say investors are anxious over the potential economic fallout of the newly imposed tariffs is an understatement.

The market's reaction to this economic "remedy" has been quite dramatic - it caused a rather tariff-ying plunge. (yup, I’m dropping puns during a market collapse)

🏉 Sports

NFL owners have postponed a vote to ban the 'tush push' play, despite some safety concerns about the maneuver that helped the Philadelphia Eagles achieve a 40-22 victory in Super Bowl LIX, a game that generated over $800 million in advertising revenue for Fox. While no definitive injury data exists, the debate over the play's place in football continues, with a final decision expected at the May owners' meetings.

It looks like the short-yardage drama will live on causing defensive coordinators everywhere to continue losing sleep.

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irl Media NEWSLETTER is written, edited, and published by Chris Thompson.